Blue Wave Overhyped?
The US Midterm Elections took place on the 6th of November ("Remember, remember, the sixth of November"). The elections largely followed the predicted outcome, with Democrats taking the House by a decent margin and Republicans clinging on to the Senate. Many were hoping for big a Democratic "blue wave", but the results seem to have settled in a more narrow victory, despite Trump's historically low approval ratings.
There were some hopeful Democratic candidates in heavily Republican districts who, while closing large leads in polls, ended up not winning. One such example was Texas's Beto O'Rourke, who ended up narrowly losing to incumbent Republican senator Ted Cruz. Democrats also lost some races for the Senate, which were favorable to them in the polling.
The strategy of leaning more conservative in red districts also didn't pay off for the Democrats. Some Democrats were touting how they love the Republicans and how Democrats suck. The voters agreed, and voted for Republicans instead, as one commentator put it.
Trump's Response?
I was following Trump's Twitter activity before and after the election. Before Election Day Trump was actively campaigning, holding some rallies (which is his favorite thing in the world to do, I think) and tweeting his endorsements for various Republican candidates.
Trump raised the classic issues, that pretty much every republican runs on, in his tweets: immigration, military, jobs, gun rights and veterans. He was heavily touting the perception that the US economy is doing amazing under his watch. While the stock market is doing well and unemployment is low, worker wages continue to be stagnant. He didn't mention much about healthcare, an issue that many Republicans included in their campaigns.
Trump wasn't solely relying on praising his party buddies. He attacked some of the Democrats in these races. Trump used the term "socialism", a dirty word for Republicans, in some of his tweets against Democrats. There were some of the classic "he/she has done nothing for you" attacks. Trump also did some of his usual attacks against the media.
Republicans have recently had lower voter bases but larger voter turnouts in elections. Democrats have the opposite problem, with a high number of potential voters but historically low turnout. Trump's responsibility has always been to energize his loyal base of voters, which he again succeeded at. Unfortunately, Trumps message is often that of fear and hatred, which has been scientifically shown to be effective in conservative politics.
After the election Trump was very congratulatory of, what he perceived, his victory. Trump tweeted "Tremendous success tonight. Thank you to all!" He's not completely wrong here. Some projections were even more grim for the Republicans, but just losing the House was almost inevitable. Trump even tweeted his support for Democrat Nancy Pelosi to be chosen Speaker of the House writing: "She has earned this great honor!"
Conclusion
Now that the Democrats are in control of the House, there has been talk of possibly subpoenaing Trump's tax returns and helping Robert Mueller's Russia investigation along. Trump already tweeted about the "disgusting Witch Hunt, led by 17 angry Democrats".
Trump has always been praised for having an energized and loyal following in politics. Considering the results of the election, I think he did a decent job of utilizing his base again. Trump fans are tried and true. No amount of scandal seems to be able to shake them off. I'm sure that after Trumps reign is over, many right-wingers will look to him for how to run conservative campaigns with a strong social media presence. I think right-wing politics days in America are ultimately numbered, though.
Thanks for reading.
Comments
Post a Comment